Belgium arrive as clear paper favorites under Rudi Garcia, with a front line of De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku that comfortably outguns anything Iran can field. The numbers say control: Opta makes them 67.5% to Iran's 13.2%. But one stat overshadows the talent gap — Belgium have not scored a genuine World Cup goal since Batshuayi against Canada in 2022, failing to convert their last 46 shots and 5.66 xG. A 1-1 draw with Egypt did nothing to dispel the doubt.

Iran are exactly the kind of opponent built to exploit that fragility: organized, tournament-hardened, and content to sit in a compact mid-block and strike on the counter, much as they did in their 2-2 with New Zealand. Belgium's defense is also down a first-choice centre-back in Zeno Debast, the same back line that already leaked against Egypt. Iran are missing creative pieces of their own — Jahanbakhsh, Cheshmi and Ghoddos are doubtful — which blunts their upset threat but suits a low-event, low-scoring grind.

With every Group G side level on a point and this tournament's group stage drawing roughly half its games, the realistic range here is a narrow, unconvincing Belgium win or a frustrating stalemate. De Bruyne or Doku conjuring one moment of magic remains the likeliest route to a Belgian goal, but backing a misfiring attack to break a 46-shot drought against a disciplined defense is a leap of faith. The honest call is a coin-flip that lands on 1-1.