A straight knockout for two sides level on a single point, both needing victory to keep even a faint best-third-place pulse alive. Bosnia arrive with the better goal difference, a more credible European-based squad, and a 38-year-old Dzeko who remains a genuine penalty-box threat in must-win moments. Qatar come in reeling, their confidence cratered by a 6-0 hammering from Canada that exposed severe defensive fragility.

Because neither team can afford to sit, this should be an open, end-to-end affair rather than a tense stalemate — and that dynamic typically rewards the side with more quality and composure. Afif gives Qatar a route to chances, and Bosnia's leaky display against Switzerland (four conceded) means the visitors will fancy scoring. The question is whether Qatar's shattered psyche can hold up under sustained pressure in a knockout atmosphere.

Expect Bosnia to assert their edge but not without alarm at the back. A 2-1 captures the likely shape: the favorites doing enough through superior finishing, with a desperate Qatar landing a blow but lacking the structure to survive the full ninety. The draw carries real weight given both attacks and Bosnia's defensive flaws, but the panel's unanimous read on Bosnia's quality holds.