The biggest test of Matchday 1, and a far tighter one than the names imply. Brazil begin their pursuit of a sixth World Cup crown — and an end to a 24-year title drought, their longest since 1950 — at MetLife Stadium against opponents who have outgrown the 'dark horse' label entirely. Morocco are ranked seventh in the world, reached the semi-finals in 2022, and have lost just twice in 45 matches since the start of 2023.

The team news shifts the math. Neymar is out with a calf problem, and his absence forces Igor Thiago up front — a meaningful downgrade from the side Brazil hoped to field. The attacking burden falls on Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, Lucas Paqueta and Matheus Cunha, with Casemiro and Bruno Guimaraes screening behind. Morocco are without defenders Nayef Aguerd and Abde Ezzalzouli but bring a disciplined 4-2-3-1 built for exactly this: soak up Brazilian possession, then strike on transition — the blueprint that knocked out Spain and Portugal in Qatar.

The AI lands on Brazil 2-1 but at just 50% confidence, its most uncertain call of the day. Brazil's individual quality should ultimately decide it, but Neymar's absence and Morocco's elite organization make a draw — or an outright upset — entirely live. If you're going to bet against the AI anywhere this weekend, this is the match with the most cover.