Philadelphia hosts Group L's true decider. Croatia, on 3 points with a -1 goal difference, must win to be certain of the knockouts after a 4-2 defeat to England was followed by a battling 1-0 win over Panama. They have the pedigree and the firepower — Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Mario Pasalic all fit — and crucially the desperation of a side that knows a draw may not be enough. Ghana sit pretty on 4 points (+1) and need only a draw to reach the last 16 for just the second time, after their famous run to the 2010 quarter-finals.

The tactical battle is the story. Carlos Queiroz's Ghana have conceded zero across two games, including a creditable 0-0 against England, and arrive with no need to chase — they can sit, stay compact and frustrate. Croatia will dominate the ball and probe, but breaking down a disciplined, draw-sufficient defense is precisely the kind of task that produces a tense, low-scoring grind. Expect Under 2.5 to be live and the game to hinge on one moment; Croatia's greater quality and urgency tips them to find it late, but Ghana's organisation makes a 0-0 or 1-1 that sends them through far from fanciful. A genuine coin-flip.