Group G's Seattle finale is the biggest night of Egypt's modern World Cup era. After a creditable 1-1 draw with Belgium and a landmark 3-1 win over New Zealand — their first modern-era World Cup victory, with Mohamed Salah central to the goals and edging toward his all-time national scoring record — Egypt sit top on 4 points and need only a draw to seal knockout qualification and very likely the group. Iran arrive in the opposite mood: winless after a 2-2 with New Zealand and a goalless stalemate with Belgium, and now in a do-or-die spot where only a win keeps them alive.

The problem for Iran is teeth. They are bottom of Group G for shots, shots on target and xG — defensively stubborn (that 0-0 against Belgium proves it) but profoundly short of attacking thrust. Egypt can afford to defend the point that suits them, funnel everything through Salah on the counter, and dare Iran to find a breakthrough they have not managed all tournament. Expect a tense, cagey decider that screams low-scoring; a 1-1 that sends Egypt through and Iran home is the most likely script, though one Salah moment could settle it.