This is the top-of-Group-L showdown, both teams arriving on three points but by very different routes. England announced themselves with a 4-2 demolition of Croatia, Kane and Bellingham orchestrating an attack in full flow, while Ghana needed a 95th-minute winner just to see off Panama. On paper England are heavy favourites at -295 with Opta giving them 78.8%, and Kane stands one goal from overtaking Lineker as England's all-time World Cup top scorer.

The caveat is England's backline. They leaked twice against Croatia, and Ghana possess exactly the kind of pace out wide — Semenyo and Williams — to punish a high line on the break. With Thomas Partey back in midfield and question marks over Rice, Saka and Rashford's fitness, the gap is narrower than the market suggests. Expect England to dominate possession and transitions, but a clean sheet looks unlikely.

The most probable shape is a lively England win with both teams scoring: England's class and finishing edge carry the day, but Ghana's counter-threat keeps them in it for spells. Back a 3-1 home win, with BTTS firmly on the table and the draw a realistic if outside outcome given how competitive this group clash is.