France open Group I as favorites with a glittering, fully fit attack — Mbappe captaining alongside Dembele, Olise and Doue, with Tchouameni shielding Saliba and Upamecano behind. On paper they have a clear edge in match-winners over any side in the group.

But Senegal are no soft touch and arrive whole: Sadio Mane is finally fit and captaining, Koulibaly and Niakhate form a stubborn central wall, and Nicolas Jackson offers genuine pace to punish France's high line. These two last met in a World Cup opener in 2002 — Senegal won one of the great shocks — and this edition's group games have been drawing at an extraordinary clip.

The honest read is a tight, low-scoring contest that France should just edge through individual quality, 1-0, but with the draw very much alive. Confidence is deliberately modest: this is closer to a coin-flip than the bookmakers' headline price implies.