For both nations this is the game that defines their group. Scotland are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1998, and with Brazil and Morocco also in Group C, manager Steve Clarke's side know that anything less than three points here likely ends their knockout hopes before they begin. The good news for the Tartan Army: Scotland enter scorching hot, having battered Curacao and Bolivia by a combined 8-1 in their final friendlies.

Haiti are the romance story — only their second World Cup appearance ever, and their first in 52 years. They are not without quality: Premier League midfielder Jean-Jacques Bellegarde and striker Wilson Isidor headline a side that will fancy this as their best shot at points in a brutal group. But their preparation was bumpy, including a 2-1 loss to Peru in their final warm-up, and the gap in depth and tournament readiness is real. In goal, Scotland must choose between Angus Gunn and 43-year-old Craig Gordon, with Gunn the likelier pick.

The AI calls Scotland 2-1 at 60% confidence. The bookmakers agree — Scotland 4/7, Haiti 11/2 — and the Scots' firepower should ultimately overwhelm a Haitian side that may struggle defensively over 90 minutes. The realistic Haitian path is an early goal and a low block, but Scotland's need for goal difference in this group means they will chase the game until it is won.