Belgium's golden generation has flattered to deceive in Group G, scraping two draws — 1-1 with Egypt and a goalless one with Iran — and managing just a single goal despite a squad brimming with talent. Now at BC Place in Vancouver they face a New Zealand side that must win or go out, but whose tournament tells the story: a 2-2 with Iran and a 3-1 loss to Egypt have left them with a -4 goal difference and no realistic platform to upset one of the favorites.

This is the night Belgium are expected to finally click. Romelu Lukaku, his country's all-time leading scorer on 90 international goals and the tournament's shortest-priced marksman, should feast on the space a desperate New Zealand will have to leave, with Jeremy Doku's pace a constant threat down the flank. The models are emphatic — Opta gives Belgium 80.3%, Kalshi 83% — and the popular read of NZ 0-3 Belgium reflects the gulf. New Zealand's only path is a win they simply aren't built to deliver; expect Belgium to control it and win comfortably to-nil.