In San Francisco, this Group D finale is effectively a knockout for Paraguay: a draw is enough for Australia to take second on goal difference, so La Albirroja must win. Their task is harder without Miguel Almirón, suspended after leading the line with ten international goals — a significant blow to their right side. Paraguay opened with a 4-1 loss to the USA but recovered to sit level on points with Australia, each side having one win.

The history is tangled and tight: Paraguay are unbeaten in their last six World Cup Matchday-3 group games and are Opta's 38% favourites, yet Australia are unbeaten in five all-competitions meetings between the sides and Paraguay have the psychological edge as Australia have never beaten a CONMEBOL nation at a World Cup. With the draw suiting Australia, expect them to defend deep and counter while Paraguay press for the winner they need. The market is a genuine coin-flip with an elevated draw probability — and we lean to a 1-1 that, as it stands, would put Australia through.