Both sides arrive at BMO Field in Toronto winless and effectively eliminated, with only the faintest best-third-place permutations keeping a pulse — Senegal on -3 goal difference, Iraq on a battered -6. On paper it is a dead rubber, but the talent disparity makes it anything but a coin flip. Senegal have lost twice (3-1 to France, 3-2 to Norway) yet flashed genuine attacking quality throughout this World Cup, with Ismaila Sarr finding the net across both defeats and the spine of Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson still capable of carving open any defense. Their problem has been a fragile back line that shipped six goals — but against this opponent, attack should comfortably outweigh defense.

Iraq, by contrast, have been thoroughly outclassed: a 4-1 loss to Norway and a 3-0 defeat to France, seven goals conceded, just one scored, and the added blow that their lone marksman Aymen Hussein may be absent. The Opta supercomputer is unequivocal — Senegal 77.2% to win, Iraq 8.6%, draw 14.2% — and with both defenses leaky, Over 2.5 goals is the popular read. Watch Sarr and Jackson to get at a porous Iraqi rearguard early; the realistic question is the margin rather than the winner. A 3-1 Senegal victory feels like the natural landing spot, restoring some pride for the Lions of Teranga before they head home.