South Korea arrive needing only a draw to reach the knockouts, and that mathematical comfort frames everything. With Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in rested against Mexico and now refreshed, Korea hold the clear individual-quality edge over a South African side fighting for its tournament life. The danger for Bafana is that even a passive Korea can punish on the counter.

South Africa must win — a draw only survives in a tangled goal-difference scenario — yet they walk into this decider stripped of two of their most influential players. Mokoena's suspension removes their penalty threat and set-piece menace, and Zwane's three-match ban kills a direct attacking outlet. Desperation and a committed home approach will generate chances, but the personnel to break down a full-strength Korean backline is thinner than it should be.

Expect Korea to control phases, sit on parity when it suits them, and back Son's quality to find the decisive moment. The draw is genuinely live given Korea's draw-is-enough caution and South Africa's all-out commitment, but the lean is a tight, low-scoring Korean win that ends a 16-year wait for the hosts.