Spain arrive as overwhelming favorites but with a bruised opener: 27 shots and total control against debutants Cabo Verde produced nothing but a 0-0. The underlying numbers scream that a correction is due, and the gap in quality over Saudi Arabia is real. Yet a packed low block frustrated this exact Spain side once already, and the much-touted attacking refresh is softer than advertised — Yamal is on a minutes leash and Nico Williams is short of peak fitness.

Saudi Arabia will sit deep, stay compact and try to repeat the discipline that earned a creditable 1-1 with Uruguay. Their game plan is simple: survive the early storm, frustrate Spain's volume, and steal a point that would feel like a win in a wide-open group where everyone sits on one. If the first goal does not arrive before the hour, the doubts from the opener will start to weigh.

The likeliest story is still Spain breaking through and, once ahead, opening the game up to run it past a defense forced higher. But the 0-0 is a caution, not a footnote, and a stubborn back line plus a managed attack keep the draw genuinely live. Spain to win 2-0, with a one-goal grind or a frustrating stalemate the clear secondary outcomes.