Sweden open Group F as narrow favorites despite a humbling road to the finals — they finished bottom of their UEFA qualifying group before edging Ukraine and Poland in the playoffs. What carries them is firepower: Alexander Isak is recovered and fit, and Viktor Gyokeres arrives among the hottest strikers in Europe. Tunisia, meanwhile, bring familiar virtues of organization and resilience but a chronically shallow attack, freshly exposed by a comprehensive Belgium warm-up loss.

The matchup is a classic test of finishing quality against defensive shape. Sweden's high fullbacks and Gyokeres dragging center-backs wide should open the pockets Isak thrives in, and Tunisia's counter offers little to punish the gaps Sweden leave behind. The risk for Sweden is patience: a disciplined Tunisian low block can stay compact, and the Swedes' modest pedigree means a 2-0 stroll is not guaranteed — a goalless frustration or a single-goal squeaker is a live alternative.

The call is a Sweden win, in line with both the market and the panel, but with respect for genuine variance against a stubborn opponent. Expect the front pairing to break through eventually, with Tunisia's organization keeping it from becoming a rout. Final: 2-0 Sweden.