Japan arrive in command of their own destiny: a point already banked from a gritty 2-2 with the Netherlands, and a win here puts them in control of Group F. Their compact, vertical 4-3-3 and proven big-game temperament — they have beaten Germany and Spain on this stage — make them deserved favorites against a Tunisia side reeling from a 5-1 hammering by Sweden.

Tunisia's situation is structurally worse than the scoreline of their opener suggests. Sacking Sabri Lamouchi mid-tournament and parachuting in Herve Renard leaves a psychologically bruised squad with days, not weeks, to rebuild defensive shape. Renard's motivational reputation and a cornered side's desperation are genuine variables, but emergency reorganisation more often breeds disorder than a clean bounce.

The honest caveat is Japan's own absentees — Kubo and Endo out removes creative and pressing quality — and this World Cup's habit of competitive group games drifting to draws. That keeps the draw firmly in play and confidence modest. Lean Japan, edging it 2-0 behind a clean sheet, but treat a tight, low-scoring stalemate as the most credible alternative.