Group H's Guadalajara finale pits motivation against pedigree. Spain top the group on 4 points after rebounding from a flat 0-0 with Cabo Verde to dismantle Saudi Arabia 4-0, Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice and teenage star Lamine Yamal on the scoresheet. A draw is enough to seal top spot, which may tempt Luis de la Fuente into rotation. Uruguay, by contrast, have stumbled to two draws — 1-1 with Saudi Arabia and 2-2 with Cabo Verde — and arrive knowing that only a victory guarantees their place in the last 32.

That asymmetry of need is the whole game. Uruguay will throw everything forward, leaning on the intensity and desperation that has long defined La Celeste in must-win moments, and a rotated Spain could be vulnerable to a fast start. History offers Spain comfort — Uruguay have never beaten them in recorded meetings — and the models still make La Roja clear favorites. But a desperate Uruguay at home, against a Spanish side with one eye on the knockouts, is exactly the scenario for an upset. Expect an open, end-to-end affair; a 2-1 Uruguay win that throws the group wide open is well within range.